New poll indicates majority support for Bay Area transit revenue and reform measure

Contra Costa voters polled support two of three options; want potholes fixed on local streets, improved traffic flow and safety

Members of the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC)’s and the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG)’s Joint Legislation Committee heard, on Friday, Feb. 14, the results of a January 2025 poll of Bay Area voters conducted by Oakland-based EMC Research on options for a potential transportation tax measure that could avert deep service cuts by BART, San Francisco Muni, Caltrain and other transit agencies; and could spur implementation of the Bay Area Transit Transformation Action Plan to improve the customer experience for transit riders. State senators Scott Wiener of San Francisco and Jesse Arreguín of Berkeley last month introduced Senate Bill 63 to authorize placement of such a measure on the November 2026 ballot. EMC Research, Inc. conducted the poll of 3,050 Bay Area voters to test support and overall attitudes regarding a potential transportation revenue measure, including a three-way split sample to test three different funding frameworks. They included the following:

• Scenario 1A: A 10-year 1/2-cent sales tax focused on averting major transit service cuts and providing funding for Transit Transformation, generating at least $560 million annually and
• Hybrid: A 30-year 1/2-cent sales tax plus $0.09 per building sq.ft. parcel tax including at least five counties and up to nine, providing a higher level of funding for transit operations in early years, funding for Transit Transformation, plus flexibility for local infrastructure priorities.
• Variable Rate: ½-cent to 7/8-cent (0.875) sales tax for transit for 11 years, as proposed by San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency, generating at least $640 million annually focused on transit operations with the goal of more fully addressing transit agencies’ operating funding needs. Note that this framework was included to maximize efficiencies and ensure “apples to apples” comparison of polling results. SFMTA is funding this portion of the poll.

The poll found that a majority (54%) of voters in the four counties of Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco and San Mateo would vote yes on a half-cent sales tax to avoid major transit cuts to BART, Caltrain, Muni and AC Transit. It also found majority support (55%) in these four counties for a variable tax option that included a half-cent sales tax in Contra Costa, Alameda and San Mateo and a higher (0.875 cent) sales tax in San Francisco. In Contra Costa County the results of 600 total voters polled, with 200 for each option, initially showed 53% support for Scenario 1A: 10-year 1/2-cent sales tax, 51% support for the Hybrid option and 54% support for the Variable Rate. But after hearing more information and opposition, 56% of Contra Costa voters opposed the Hybrid option, 53% supported the Variable Rate and just 51% supported the 1/2-cent sales tax. “While it’s good to see most voters would support a measure of these types, support is well below the two-thirds threshold that would be required if MTC were to place the measure on the ballot,” noted MTC Commissioner and Pleasant Hill City Councilmember Sue Noack. “This means any near-term path would need to be via a citizen’s initiative, which would require a broad coalition to gather the needed signatures as well as strong campaign leadership.” The poll results show transportation ranks comparatively low on the list of voters’ concerns when respondents were asked an open-ended question (affordable housing, drugs/crime and homelessness top the list) but awareness of the post-pandemic challenges faced by transit agencies is high, with over two-thirds of the voters polled saying Bay Area public transit needs more funding. “Transit has an irreplaceable role in our region, being the only source of transportation for many essential workers, people of color, and working-class families,” added Senator Arreguín. “As we continue our recovery from the pandemic, securing funding to public transit is required to ensure a stronger, more resilient economy for all of us in the Bay Area.” A third tax framework for which EMC Research polled Bay Area voters involved a measure that would be funded by a combination of a half-cent sales tax and a 9-cents per square foot parcel tax over 30 years to funds pothole repairs and highway improvements in addition to transit improvements. Support for this framework started at 51 percent but dipped to 44 percent after respondents heard opposing arguments. MTC in December 2024 approved several policy provisions for inclusion in state legislation that would enable voters to consider a future ballot measure. These include requiring stronger oversight of transit agencies’ financial information and requiring transit agencies to adopt policies to help improve the transit customer experience as a condition for receiving new funds. About MTC MTC is the transportation planning, financing and coordinating agency for the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area. The full presentation delivered to the MTC-ABAG Joint Legislation Committee may be accessed on the MTC website. Allen D. Payton contributed to this report.